Demographics particularly affect the bottleneck occupations

Germany has a rapidly ageing society. According to an analysis by the German Economic Institute, 19.5 million workers from the so-called baby boomer cohorts will be lost from the German labour market over the next twelve years. At the same time, only 12.5 million younger workers will join the labour market by 2036.

The shortage of skilled labour in many professions in Germany will worsen as the baby boomer generation retires.

The question that particularly concerns us, however, is in which professions the shortage of workers will become particularly acute in the coming years. The proportion of the baby boomer generation retiring in the next few years is particularly high in bottleneck occupations. Across all occupations, it is 25 percent (source: Federal Statistical Office; https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2025/01/PD25_N001_13.html).

Various professions in the transport sector are particularly affected: for example, 44% of bus and streetcar drivers were at least 55 years old in 2023. Around 40 percent of professional drivers in freight transportation are also at least 55 years old. Among road and tunnel maintenance workers – who are responsible for road safety, winter services and road maintenance, for example – a third belong to the 55-plus age group.

In meat processing and sales, the proportion of older employees is similarly high as in the transport sector: 36% of those working in sales were at least 55 years old in 2023, compared to 30% in meat processing occupations.

Insights into the industry:

The statistics also clearly show in which sectors the demand for labor will be particularly high over the next ten years. At 33%, the proportion of people aged 55 and over is highest in the real estate and housing sector. The proportion is also above average in agriculture, forestry and fishing at 28%. In the transport and warehousing sector, which also includes some professional drivers, 28% of employees were also aged 55 and over in 2023.

Even though there are individual professions in the retail sector with a high proportion of the 55-plus age group, their share of the total workforce in the sector is slightly below average at 24%. In the hospitality industry, the partial shortage of jobs and skilled workers is also not disproportionately exacerbated by increasing ageing: just under a fifth of dependent employees in this sector were aged 55 and over most recently – the proportion is well below the average of 25%.

Methodological Notes:

The information on employees comes from the initial results of the 2023 microcensus. The microcensus is a sample survey in which around 1% of the population in Germany is surveyed annually.

The results refer to occupational subgroups according to the Classification of Occupations 2010 (kldB 2010) and economic sections according to the Classification of Economic Activities 2008 (WZ 2008).

(Sources: Tagesschau, German Economic Institute, Federal Statistical Office)